Linux desktop usage jumps 1483 percent!

From CNET news:
http://news.com.com/2100-1001-938685.html

'Breaking into the desktop market will be tough. Although Redmond, Wash.-based Microsoft isn't dominant in servers, it has 94 percent of the market for operating systems that run on 'clients' such as desktop and laptop computers. Linux claims only 3.8 percent of that market, said IDC analyst Dan Kusnetzky.'

Less than a year ago, folks like FlatFish+++ were telling us that Linux had 0.24% of the desktop market. Now Linux is at 3.8 percent! That's an increase of 1483 percent! Linux's desktop growth is just plain amazing!

To be fair, that 0.24% figure was quoted by some sort of browser ID poll that the stat firm Web Side Story ran. WSS still hasn't provided any further data regarding the 'study.' Without a demographic of their (WSS's) clientele, methods for gathering data, or actual numbers, the 0.24 per cent remains about as reliable a number as that 3.8 per cent. BTW, I don't believe the 3.8 per cent figure either. Like I've said before, when someone actually goes out and physically counts desktop operating systems, uses a diversified demographic, and posts the data along with an explanation of methods (for our scrutiny), I will remain skeptical of any such claim

I think a simple survey of clients for a general web site like google or cnn would be an interesting figure, and very easy to calculate.

Not true. First, many linux systems and browser combinations are going to get ID'd as 'unknown' or something else besides just Linux. Second, there are huge flaws with the method of correlating a distribution of website visitors with a distribution of desktop users. That's been the whole problem with idiots who try to use counter hit statistics as a means of measuring desktop

I agree completely. However, it's fun to make folks like FlatFish+++ choke on their own numbers.

I don't see why 'desktop users' is any more interesting a figure than 'google visitors.' The latter counts frequent visitors more heavily, which seems reasonable. But unless you believe that the average linux user visits more frequently than the average windows user, the question is completely moot.

As for many linux systems being misidentified, I don't see why. A few will purposely misidentify, but that's not the default and there's no reason to assume that's a large percentage.

I never said one was 'more interesting' than the other. What makes you think I did? I did say that you can't use 'google visitors' as a way to count Linux 'desktop users'. It's the number of Linux desktop users that we've been discussing. If you can't see why 'google visitors' can't be used to accurately estimate Linux desktop users, then take a good statistics class.

The latter counts frequent visitors more heavily, which

You lack a complete understanding.

What do you think the large number of 'unknowns' that many sites report are actually running?

Linux at 1%

It's still pretty small.

Heh. Growing all the time. We can wait...

On 26 Jun 2002 08:30:45 GMT, Pete Goodwin assert()ed:

Also, it doesn't mean squat unless both stats were from the same measure.

Perhaps flatty measured it to be 0.24% using his method and CNET measured it to be 3.8%.

What is the real number?